Multi-Site Framework
June 2026
Where Does Combustion-Formed Water Go?
A Finite-Source, Climatological, Multi-Site Stochastic Model for the Ground Return of Natural-Gas Combustion Water Vapor
Buford Ray Conley · Creekstone Energy LLC
Complete technical framework for the ground return of combustion-formed water vapor. Combines combustion chemistry, moist-air thermodynamics, a finite-source nonlinear saturation closure, stochastic tagged-water transport, three mass-conserving deposition pathways (precipitation scavenging, local condensate settling, dew/frost surface uptake), an aerosol/dust nucleation enhancement, and an annual deposition footprint integrated over a multi-year measured wind climatology. For a representative western U.S. gas mixture, a 360,000 Dth/day source forms ≈174 kg/s of new water (≈12.2 acre-ft/day, ≈4,460 acre-ft/yr). Realized as both a hybrid Lagrangian–Eulerian Monte Carlo simulation and its closed-form analytic steady-state limit, with application to two contrasting sites: the dry, low-aerosol Delta, Utah high desert and the humid, aerosol-laden Salt Lake City / Wasatch Front.